Virologia: Pesquisa Atual

This commentary article focuses on biological parallels between Porcine Respiratory Coronavirus and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 pandemics. Emphasis is on spread, antibody (humoral) immunity and need for development of highly accurate, virus-specific antibody assay capable to differentiate between antibodies induced by newly emerged COVID-19 coronavirus and those induced by other, closely related coronaviruses.

The pattern of the SARS-CoV-2 incidence concentrated in the 30-50N latitude zone suggests dust carrying the virus is spread by a circum-global jet-stream, specifically the northern sub-tropical jet-stream that blows in the high-altitude troposphere over northern China in early spring-time. It is known that the agent of the Kawasaki disease is carried by long-range winds to Japan and California from north-east China. We hypothesize that dust carrying the virus SARS-CoV-2 was similarly transported from the huge virus reservoir generated in Wuhan province to southern USA, thence across the Atlantic to Portugal and further states to the east. On this model the primary in fall of the dust/virus-carrier depends on the jet-stream interaction with regional weather systems, causing incidence of SARS-CoV-2 cases in various countries/ states along this latitude belt. The notable case of Brazil on 31 March 2020-exceptionally outside the 30-50N belt-is proposed to be due to the Azores cyclonic system entraining part of the jet-stream west of Portugal into the south-westerly trade winds, when these winds penetrate to Brazil during spring-time.

We argue that the new coronavirus COVID-19 was probably linked to the arrival of a pure culture of the virus in cometary debris that was deposited in the stratosphere, and first came down in the Hubei province of China. The subsequent worldwide spread of the virus has taken place by a combination of two effects: the deposition of further large quantities of virus at several locations – Iran, North Italy, South Korea – combined with much slower spread through person-to-person infection (itself enhanced largely by contaminated surfaces and personal affects). The location of the foci outside China all lie close to latitude 40 degrees N, consistent with the transport of aerosols by cyclonic winds in the stratosphere. It is also remarkably consistent with observations in the 1960’s of the fall-out of radioactive dust deposited in the stratosphere in the last of the atmospheric atom bomb tests. On this basis, we conclude that a stratospheric loading of the Coronavirus that happened in October/ November 2019 could take a few winter seasons to be fully drained. A clearer understanding of the causal events that led to the COVID-19 pandemic could help planning future strategy.

Examining a sample of still unfolding epidemiological data relating to the world-wide epidemic of Covid-19, we conclude that a connection with an atmospheric in fall appears increasingly probable.

We propose that the new coronavirus which first appeared in the Hubei province of China was probably linked to the arrival of a pure culture of the virus contained in cometary debris that was dispersed over a localised area of the planet namely China. The sighting of a fireball some 2000 kilometers north of Wuhan on 11 October 2019 followed shortly after with the first recorded cases in Hubei is suggestive of a causal link. Gene sequencing data of the virus that show little or no genetic variations between isolates, combined with available epidemiological data point to the predominance of a transmission process directly from an “infected” environment, with personto- person transmission playing a comparatively weaker secondary role. The facts relating to this epidemic are discussed and placed in the context of other pandemics that have been recorded throughout history.