Hidrologia: Pesquisa Atual

Simulation of Hydro Climatological Impacts Caused by Climate Change: The Case of Hare Watershed, Southern Rift Valley of Ethiopia

Abstract

Biniyam Yisehak Menna

Ethiopia will be more vulnerable to climate change. Because of the less flexibility to adjust the economic structure and being largely dependent on agriculture, the impact of climate change has far reaching implication in Ethiopia. Simulation models of watershed hydrology and water quality are extensively used for water resources planning and management. The study aims to Simulate Hydro Climatological impacts caused by Climate Change: the case of Hare Watershed, Southern Rift Valley of Ethiopia. In the study the daily data values of rainfall and discharge for the current period of 1980-2006 were used. Historical Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs) data of precipitation and temperature were used to extract raw climate variables. The raw RCPs data were corrected using a bias correction method. The downscaled climate data such as, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios was used for the future period assessment. Soil water assessment tool (SWAT) models were used to Simulate Hydro Climatological impacts caused by Climate Change. Calibration and validation of the model output were performed by comparing predicted streamflow with corresponding measurements from the Hare river outlet for the periods 1991-2002 for calibration and 2003-2006 for validation. The models’ calibration results show a good agreement with the observed flow with the coefficient of determination is 0.85 and a Nash Sutcliffe efficiency is 0.73. The result of mean monthly percentage changes of climate variables from the baseline period were used to simulate future projections of stream flow. Stream flow projections for future time periods showed that mean monthly stream flow may increase by 12.2, 8.0, and 13.9% at 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively, from the baseline period for RCP4.5 scenario, whereas for RCP8.5 scenario, it will be expected to increase by 7.3, 13.4, and 15.4% for 2020s, 2040s, and 2080s, respectively. The model simulations considered only future climate change scenarios assuming all spatial data constant. But change in land use scenarios other climate variables will also contribute some impacts on future stream flow.